Clash of captains holds key to third Test

If the Ashes are decided at Headingley over coming days, there's a strong possibility the absorbing head-to-head battle between Australia skipper Pat Cummins and his England equivalent Ben Stokes will play a decisive part.

As holders of the urn, Australia need only to draw the current third Test to retain the tiny terracotta trophy but after Cummins set up his men for a first series win in the UK since 2001 with brilliant bowling on day two, Stokes snatched back initiative with another brutal batting display.

With three days to play, and dodgy weather forecast throughout, Australia coach Andrew McDonald believes the game is poised "50-50" with his team on the edge at 4-116 and holding a lead of 142 which history – both recent and more distant – suggests is not nearly sufficient.

It was on day one of this Test, after current unbeaten pair Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh were separated following a 155-run fifth-wicket stand, that Australia's last six wickets succumbed for 23 runs in the face of hostile fast bowling from Mark Wood.

And England have won two of their past three Tests at Headingley by chasing down sizeable fourth innings scores – 296 (for the loss of just three wickets) against New Zealand last year, and 362 thanks to a Stokes miracle in the 2019 Ashes fixture where he blasted the winning boundary off Cummins.

As if the spectre of Stokes didn’t already loom largely over this Test because of that one-wicket win four years ago where he carried England to the podium with 135 not out in five and a half hours of batting, there was last Sunday's virtuoso effort at Lord's where he almost did it again.

But if England's talismanic leader seems destined to once again deliver victory against all rational thinking, then the most significant obstacle in his path is his captaincy rival whose 6-91 on Friday installed him as Australia's leading wicket-taker of this Ashes campaign.

"I thought Pat Cummins was outstanding – six for, and what was his ninth five-wicket haul in Test cricket," McDonald said day two at Headingley where Cummins had claimed the vital scalp of Joe Root with his second delivery of the day before Stokes hit back.

"I think Ben Stokes is an incredible leader and we've got an incredible one in Pat Cummins as well.

'We're going to have to work out a way to navigate through Ben Stokes in the second innings, and Pat today was outstanding so that one-on-one showdown is a must-watch.

"I'd love to be a spectator and not a coach, because I'd be able to appreciate it a little bit more.

"It's got everyone on the edge of their seats."

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The reason the pair's toe-to-toe battle provides a unique element to this Ashes battle is largely due to Test cricket's historical reluctance to see fast bowlers appointed captains.

Australia's only genuine fast-bowling skipper in the post-war era has been Ray Lindwall whose one Test in charge came against India at Mumbai in 1956.

For England, the role has been filled by seam-bowling allrounders Ian Botham, Andrew Flintoff, Tony Greig and now Stokes during that period but, with the exception of the late Bob Willis who led them 18 times from 1982-1984, it's not been deemed a job suitable for out-and-out quicks.

As a consequence, the battle between individual captains usually sees two top-order batters going at it with the only hope of them duelling from opposite ends of the pitch coming if one bowls his part-time spin at the other.

As Stokes slipped into overdrive with England eight wickets down and still almost 100 runs adrift on day two, he and Cummins waged battle across five compelling overs during which neither party could land a decisive blow.

Stokes might have felt he scored a moral win when he punched his captaincy counterpart behind point for a fourth consecutive boundary (the first three coming off Mitchell Starc), which prompted Cummins to fling the ball so full and far outside off stump it barely hit the cut stuff and yielded five wides.

But of the 16 balls Cummins sent down at Stokes after the fall of England's penultimate wicket, the England wrecking ball scored just eight runs off his flashing blade while – at the other end – Starc went for 12 off four and spinner Todd Murphy 32 off 20.

Admittedly, Murphy might have won that war on a knockout had the two chances Stokes offered in his opening over – a fly ball to the off-side, and a scorching return catch – been accepted, but by the time the 22-year-old eventually got his man England were just 26 runs from parity.

"I think when Ben Stokes is there, you're never in total control," McDonald said of Australia's sudden transition from bossing the game to under siege employee on Friday.

"We've seen that over a period of time.

"We created a couple of opportunities so it was a bit of dysfunction there on our behalf.

"In Todd Murphy's first over it could have looked a lot better, and he was able to get a few boundaries away."

But as the third Test reaches its climax over the coming weekend, with England in the same position they found themselves four years ago in needing to win at Headingley to keep the Ashes contest alive, it's the confrontation between the captains that looms as critical.

Not only is Cummins the leading wicket-taker in this campaign with 14 at an average of 23.42 heading into England's second innings, he now occupies a position of rare prestige in the 146-year history of the urn.

The 30-year-old has 87 Ashes wickets (at 21.18) with a wicket every 43.21 balls bowled, the best strike rate of any Australia bowler to have captured 50 more scalps against England placing him ahead of Mitchell Johnson (87 at strike rate 43.28) and Ryan Harris (57 at 43.39).

In addition to being England's leading runs scorer in the current series, despite battling a chronically sore left knee and now an injury to his right hip, Stokes has also elevated himself into elite company for the pace at which he scores against the old enemy.

His career return against Australia to date of 1453 runs (average 37.26) might not yet figure among the all-time run machines such as Jack Hobbs (3636) and David Gower (3269)

But his rate of 54.91 per 100 balls faced sits behind only Botham (62.36), Marcus Trescothick (59.34), Frank Woolley (56.05) and Kevin Pietersen (56.01) among the almost 50 men with 1000-plus Ashes runs for England.

"It’s fun, you have to do some problem solving," Cummins told BBC Radio's Test Match Special at the close of day two on his ongoing battle with his captaincy rival.

"Stokes batted well with the tail again and Wood put some into the stands too, you have to be quite clear with your plans and areas of the ground where you’re happy to be hit.

"Just when one team looks like they’re getting the upper hand the other team takes a few wickets or puts on a partnership.

"I'm sure the fans are loving it, but I wouldn't mind a stress-free day or two.

"It’s all set up for another wonderful match."

With the bone-dry Headingley pitch starting to show early signs of variable bounce, and with England's spin-bowling allrounder Moeen Ali claiming there was very little turn on offer during day two, Cummins will again be Australia's bowling trump card when the fourth innings begins.

That might make going after the sort of scores England have reeled in during recent run chases at the ground more challenging but, as McDonald lamented and Moeen lauded, no total seems beyond England's grasp when Stokes is at the crease.

"They're obviously a brilliant bowling attack and we're going to have to play well to win this game," Moeen said at day's end, adding he had no minimum or maximum target in mind because England would pursue whatever was set.

"He (Stokes) is the one player in the world that everybody will be thinking (can do it) in that situation, especially against Australia because he has done it a couple of times now.

"White ball, red ball, whatever it is, as long as he's there you've got a great chance of winning.

"When I was batting with him his hip was a little bit sore.

"I think there's a lot more than he's showing … his body's been through a lot, but one thing with Ben is he can do anything without being one hundred per cent.

"I think it's the situations more than anything.

"He loves those situations and thrives off them."

2023 Qantas Ashes Tour of the UK

First Test: Australia won by two wickets

Second Test: Australia won by 43 runs

Third Test: Thursday July 6-Monday July 10, Headingley

Fourth Test: Wednesday July 19-Sunday July 23, Old Trafford

Fifth Test: Thursday July 27-Monday 31, The Oval

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey (wk), Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis (wk), Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitch Marsh, Todd Murphy, Michael Neser, Matthew Renshaw, Steve Smith (vc), Mitchell Starc, David Warner

England squad: Ben Stokes (c), Moeen Ali, James Anderson, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Harry Brook, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Dan Lawrence, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Joe Root, Josh Tongue, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood